Opinion: Issue No. 1 in November: Jobs

Illegal immigration. The war in Afghanistan. Global warming. Health Care. Terrorism. All of these issues remain on the radar in Washington, as Americans look ahead to the November elections. But while some of those issues were front and center just a short election cycle ago, today they are mere blips on the periphery of the screen.

That’s because far and away, the singular issue at the top of poll after poll is the one that continues to plague majority Democrats, has propelled the nascent Tea Party movement to prominence, and perplexes Republicans hoping to regain seats in the House and Senate: The economy and, specifically, how best to replace the millions of jobs lost since the start of the Great Recession more than two years ago.

On Sunday The New York Times, in a piece discussing “dwindling policy options” regarding what more can be done to bolster the U.S. economy, summed up the dire nature of the issue by pronouncing that “the economy is once again tilting towards danger,” despite the Obama administration’s “aggressive regimen of treatments” including “more than $800 billion in federal spending, and trillions of dollars worth of credit from the Federal Reserve.”

The Times piece comes on the heels of an alarmingly honest admission by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke on Friday, who said the economy was performing weaker than he had hoped, while not really offering any new answers for jumpstarting economic activity.

At the same time the government’s own economic numbers were equally dour: Growth slowed last quarter to a paltry 1.6 percent, leaving “a sense has taken hold that government policy makers cannot deliver meaningful intervention,” the Times said. Economic activity forecasts look only slightly better for the final quarter of the year, given the traditional holiday shopping seasons, but no reputable economists are predicting a wild period of growth on the horizon.

And while employment figures for this week were slightly better, Reuters reported, they weren’t nearly good enough to convey optimism.

“New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week but a measure of underlying labor market trends rose to a nine-month high, pointing to a subdued jobs recovery,” Reuters said.

Unemployment continues to hover around 9.5 percent, and that figure rises “unofficially” to about 15 or 16 percent if the number of workers who have given up looking for a job are included.

Meanwhile, competing analysts have offered their take on potential solutions. Conservatives believe the reason why American corporations – said to be flush with some $2 trillion in cash reserves – aren’t hiring and expanding is because of the crush of new regulations, taxes and obligations imposed by the health care and financial overhaul measures. Worse, they fear new legislation and policy initiatives on the horizon – a cap-and-trade bill, allowing the Bush tax cuts to expire, and designs on more government regulation of private industry – will sap even more of their reserves. In short, such fears have become a disincentive to hire.

On the other hand, liberals say the Obama administration’s hundreds of billions in bailouts and stimulus programs have served to blunt the recession, averted a full-blown depression and leveled off the economic damage, leading to new economic growth in key sectors like manufacturing and retail, as indicated by steadily rising factory orders for the second- and third quarters.

The truth may lie somewhere in between the two points, but what is clear is that the continued poor economic and jobs outlook is harming Obama and majority Democrats, as it hurt the GOP in 2008. “A Reuters/Ipsos poll this week found 72 percent of respondents were very worried about joblessness, while Obama's approval rating, at 45 percent, was overtaken for the first time by a 52 percent disapproval rating,” the newswire reported Sunday.

On the surface the Republican Party seems to be the obvious benefactor from voter angst, but the reality is their ascendency in November isn’t necessarily a given. In fact, some Republican leaders have even warned GOP colleagues not to underestimate the resiliency of Obama in particular and Democrats in general.

Former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay of Texas said GOP victories in the November midterms aren’t "a given" because Democrats have built a solid grassroots infrastructure, which they displayed during the 2006 and 2008 election cycles.

“Over the last ten years, the Democrats, particularly the Democrats in the House, have put together one of the most powerful grassroots coalitions that I've ever seen,” DeLay said during an appearance on Fox News. “So it's not a given that the Republicans are going to win all these seats this year, because the Democrats have had a grassroots organization to help stave off a lot of their losses."

Also, the head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Rep. Christopher Van Hollen, D-Md., says surveys predicting the end of his party’s congressional majority are wrong.

“Reports of the House Democrats’ demise are greatly exaggerated,” he told a Washington press conference Friday. “It all depends on turnout projections, and I think they have been miscalculating Democratic turnout.”

Holland believes the Tea Party-backed candidates who are sweeping this year’s primaries and whom are solidly in the Republican Party’s camp, could be too extreme for many “moderate, centrist districts.”

Posturing aside, the real challenge for both major parties is going to be which one voters believe is more capable of creating jobs and improving the economy; the Beltway crowd, as well as new candidates vying for their jobs, ignore or downplay this at their own peril.

Right now, at least on the surface, voters don’t appear enamored with Democratic efforts to revive the economy. But given the growth of the anti-incumbent Tea Party movement, it’s not a lock that voters are ready to trust the current crop of Beltway Republicans either.

Without question voters this fall will be voting with their pocketbooks.