SPC Feb 7, 2012 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 PM CST MON FEB 06 2012 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ESEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN CANADA INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND BEFORE MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A NARROW...W-E-ELONGATED SEGMENT OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SWD OVER THE N-CNTRL CONUS. A ZONE OF WLYS SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH WILL PROMOTE THE EWD PROGRESSION OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE OH VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...COLD CONTINENTAL AIR WILL SURGE SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS IN THE WAKE OF A REINFORCING FRONT. MEANWHILE...RELATIVELY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS CNTRL/S FL AND THE FL KEYS NEAR AND SOUTH OF A DIFFUSE FRONT OVER THE FL PENINSULA. FARTHER WEST...WAA ATOP A MODIFYING COLD DOME WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF S TX TONIGHT. ALSO...A HIGH-AMPLITUDE...MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E PACIFIC WILL MOVE TOWARD THE W CONUS COAST. ...PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA AND FL KEYS TODAY/THIS EVE... DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S WILL PROMOTE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AMIDST A BROAD SFC TROUGH SOUTH OF THE DIFFUSE FRONT. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF THE TROUGH AND FRONT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL GREATLY LIMIT STORM STRENGTH. ...PORTIONS OF FAR S TX TONIGHT... A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN ASSOCIATION WITH ELEVATION CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT...AS MOISTURE AND WAA INCREASE ATOP THE MODIFYING COLD DOME. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL...AND SVR STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. ...COAST OF SWRN CA TODAY/TONIGHT... WHILE DEEP-LAYER ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED E-PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE W COAST...THE PRIMARY AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTING SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR CHARGE SEPARATION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST. AS SUCH...THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY LOW OVER INLAND AREAS AND THE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS SUCH THAT GENERAL THUNDERSTORM DELINEATION IS NOT WARRANTED ATTM. ..COHEN/GOSS.. 02/07/2012 Read more

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