Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2012 Feb 05 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 036 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. The disk and limb was quiet and stable with no Earth-directed CMEs detected. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class activity for the next three days (06 - 08 February). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated high latitude active period. ACE satellite wind speeds were steady between 400 to 450 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary beyond +/- 4 nT. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the next three days (06 - 08 February). III. Event Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 Feb 103 Predicted 06 Feb-08 Feb 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 05 Feb 139 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb 004/005-004/005-004/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 01/01/01 Minor storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01