Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2012 Feb 04 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 035 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. A six degree long filament eruption was visible in SDO/AIA 304 imagery, first observed at about 03/2031Z. The filament was centered near N25W27, just to the northeast of Region 1410 (N16W44). SOHO LASCO C2 imagery observed a slow-moving CME off the north limb of the disk, first visible at 04/0836Z. At this time, the CME does not appear to have an Earthward-directed component. New Region 1414 (S06W19) emerged on the disk as a simple B-type beta group. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class activity for the next three days (05 - 07 February). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels at middle latitudes while active to minor storm periods were observed at high latitudes. ACE satellite observations indicated a steady increase in wind velocities through the period from about 400 km/s to near 460 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 5 nT for the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the next three days (05 - 07 February). III. Event Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 Feb 107 Predicted 05 Feb-07 Feb 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 04 Feb 140 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 005/005-004/005-004/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01