Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2012 Feb 02 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 033 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next 3 days (03-05 February). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (03 February) due to CH HSS effects. Conditions should return to mostly quiet levels on days 2 and 3 (04-05 February). III. Event Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 02 Feb 118 Predicted 03 Feb-05 Feb 120/120/120 90 Day Mean 02 Feb 141 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb 008/008-004/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/10/10 Minor storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01