Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2012 Jan 31 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 031 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next 3 days (01-03 February). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field began the period at unsettled conditions from 30/21Z until 31/00Z, before decreasing to quiet levels for the remainder of the day. The greater than 10 MeV proton event which began at 27/1905Z and reached a maximum of 796 pfu on 28/0205Z, dropped below the 10 pfu threshold and ended at 31/0635Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for days 1 and 2 (01-02 February), and quiet to unsettled on day 3 (03 February) due to anticipated CH HSS effects. III. Event Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 31 Jan 117 Predicted 01 Feb-03 Feb 120/120/120 90 Day Mean 31 Jan 142 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb 004/005-005/005-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/05/15 Minor storm 01/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 05/05/20 Minor storm 01/01/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01